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Club America and Cruz Azul lock horns in this Liga MX Apertura Playoffs semi-finals first leg clash at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in Mexico City Friday morning Beijing time. It's important to remember that Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes is Cruz Azul's home stadium! This the first tier of Mexican football. The level of this league is quite high by global standards.. A game of high quality by this league's standard's is expected here. Most importantly, us serious, profit-hungry bettors have yet another very promising betting opportunity here! We have won 14/20 last picks betting on this league! Yes, Club America are one of the biggest teams in Mexico but their season has been a major disappointment! Indeed, they finished only in 8th place after the regular season. They netted the ball and conceded 21 goals. They managed to take only 27 points. Yes, they have the potential for improvement but the bookmakers give this potential too much emphasis.. I do not expect a clear raise in their level at this point of the season.. According to my reports their team spirit is also not optimal at the moment. Club America have won two of their last four games in the 90 minutes of play. Indeed, on the 22nd of last month they needed penalties to eliminate Club Tijuana 3-2 away from home. Club America were priced around 2.25 to win in the 90 minutes of play. However, the hosts had one more shot on target – both teams generated 0.85 in expected goals (xG). In their last game they beat Toluca 2-0 on the road. It was the quarter-finals 2nd leg. However, Toluca had 65% ball possession and they recorded hugely more goal attempts – 20-7 to be precise! The xG numbers were 1.72-1.32 in Toluca's favour. The hosts' F. Pereira was sent off in the 85th minute. In the 1st leg Toluca had a high 66% ball possession but Club America defended well. Toluca, on the other hand, were far from their best level.. The hosts recorded three more shots on goal and we can say that they deserved to win. However, the xG numbers were more balanced than the final score 2-0 would suggest – 1.55-0.67. In the last round of regular season Toluca crushed Club America 4-0 - exposing Club America's defensive issues – and the imbalance in the midfield! Before this Club America were priced around 1.70 by the bookies to beat Pachuca at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes but were not impressive as a whole.. The visitors recorded more shots on target – 4-2. The xG numbers were 0.94-0.64 in Pachuca's favour.. With this kind of performance they are unlikely to beat a team of Cruz Azul's caliber..
Cruz Azul topped the standings after the regular season! They scored 39 goals and allowed 12 – taking a great 42 points. However, they were undeniably somewhat lucky in terms of expected goals (xG), expected goals as well as expected points (xPTS) Even so, they have been impressive – better than I would have expected – this season! At Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes they have lost any of the last 12 games – winning most matches! Cruz Azul have won two of their last three matches. In their most recent game they crushed Club Tijuana 3-0 at home. It was a quarter-finals 2nd leg. Cruz Azul recorded a whopping 26 goal attempts – allowed the visitors only four.. The xG numbers were 4.22-0.54! In the 1st leg Club Tijuana, a strong team at home, took a 3-0 win – recording three more goal attempts. Indeed, the final score is misleading.. Cruz Azul's J. Sanchez was sent off in the 34th minute which obviously had a big effect on the game! Before this they took two draws. Before losing to Club Tijuana away from home they were priced around 1.80 on the betting market to beat U.N.A.L Tigres at home but it was a 1-1 draw.. Cruz Azul recorded two more shots on target, a hugely more goal attempts (18-3) and generated a lot more in xG than the visitors - 1.83-0.79 to be precise.. It was an okay, but, in all honesty, not a flashy performance as a whole.. Before this. Cruz Azul were clear favourites to beat Atlas but had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Atlas recorded two more goal attempts. Cruz Azul, however, had more shots on goal and generated much more in xG though. Before these two draws Cruz Azul were on fire, showing how strong they can be! Indeed, they took seven consecutive wins! On the 3rd of November, in round 15, Cruz Azul recorded a whopping 22 goal attempts and did not allow the visitors a single shot not on goal. The hosts' number was nine! In round 14 Cruz Azul were solid, beating U.N.A.M 2-0 on the road – allowing the hosts only 0.63 in xG. In round 13 they crushed Juarez 4-0 at home! The xG numbers were 3.21-0.31 in the hosts' favour! The biggest bookies see Club America as slim favourites here - offering them odds of around 2.75 to win.. I strongly disagree - we will take the Cruz Azul +0.5 goals handicap option!