Aston Villa welcome Crystal Palace for this English Premier League round 12 clash at Villa Park in Birmingham Beijing time. This is clearly the best league on the planet. A match of somewhat mediocre quality by this league's standard's is expected here. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity here! My fans and I have won 12/14 last picks betting on this league! Crystal Palace finished the last season well under their Austrian manager Glasner, finishing in 10th place in the end. Aston Villa, on the other hand, performed extremely well, finishing in 4th place, above Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester United! Their excellent coach, Unai Emery, has turned the club around in just a few years. Aston Villa qualified for the UEFA Champions League (UCL) Group stage where they have won three of the four games, even beating the biggest team in Germany, Bayern Munich 1-0 at home! Their score difference is magnificent – 6:1 to be precise. They did lose their most recent UCL match though – 0-1 to Club Brugge KV in Belgium. The hosts' Vanaken scored the 1-0 goal from the penalty spot in the 52nd minute. The penalty was a totally unnecessary– and somewhat questionable one. Indeed, Villa's Tyrone Mings handled the ball in a harmless/safe situation! After this incident Villa somehow lost focus and could not generate much in expected goals (xG). Villa are currently in 9th place with a strong 18 points to their account – which is just one point less than two much bigger teams - Chelsea, currently in 3rd place and Arsenal (4th) - have grabbed.. Villa have both scored and allowed 17 goals. However, their number of xG is 21.24 and number of expected points (xPTS) is 19.34. Crystal Palace have been one of the biggest disappointments in this league this season! They have won just one game – and no away games – in this league this season. It's hard to mention anything really positive about their game.. Indeed, they have taken only seven points! Their offense has been extremely poor – they have scored only eight goals. It has lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy in key moments/ areas - near the opponent's goal.. I want to highlight that only the worst team in this league, Southampton have scored less goals.. Their defence has not been completely terrible though – they have conceded 15 goals.. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much bigger - 21.12.
Crystal Palace will be without Holding, Kamada, Lerma, Matheus Franca, Nketiah, Riad and Wharton. The very important Eze is questionable. These absences significantly hurt Crystal Palace's chances here - more than the bookies probably realize. As for Aston Villa, Barkley, Cash, Kamara, Konsa, Onana and Ramsay are out. Maarten and Torres are questionable. With the expected lineups, taking the very big home advantage into account, Aston Villa are big favourites here. Odds of around 1.65 are widely available on the betting market. Yes, Villa have lost four games in a row. I will not let this fool me. However, I do want to mention that the main rationale behind this pick is still to oppose Crystal Palace.. We must remember that two of Aston Villa's last three opponents have been strong.. In their most recent game they lost to Liverpool 0-2 as big underdogs on the betting market. Liverpool currently top the standings with 28 points.. They recorded just two more goal attempts in this game – 14-12. The xG numbers prove that the final score was unjustified 2.22-1.69. Before losing in Belgium, Villa suffered a 1-4 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. However, the final score is very misleading! The xG numbers were pretty balanced 2.34-2.29 to be precise. Before the four consecutive defeats, Villa were unbeaten in 11 matches in a row! Having played very many games, some Villa players looked quite tired against Liverpool – and to some extent against Brugge too.. Now, after the pretty long international break, I'm expecting to see a much more energetic Aston Villa here, boosted by their loud fans!
Crystal Palace have lost four of their last seven games, winning 2/7. In their most recent match, Crystal Palace lost to Fulham 0-2 at home. The visitors recorded many more goal attempts (17-13), shots on goal and corner kicks – 8-1. The visitors also generated more in xG. Before this it was a 2-2 draw on the road against Wolves. Let's not forget that Wolves are currently in 2nd-last place with six points.. Either team could have won this game. In round 9 Crystal Palace played okay at home, taking advantage of Tottenham's poor performance. The xG numbers were 0.89-0.91 and the final score was 1-0. In round 8 Crystal Palace deservedly lost to Nottingham 0-1 away from home. The xG numbers were 2.01-1.03 in the hosts' favour. In round 7 Liverpool deservedly beat Crystal Palace 1-0 away from home, despite not being at their best.. XG numbers were 0.65-1.88. In round 6 Crystal Palace to the at the time struggling Everton 1-2 in Liverpool. The hosts generated a little more in xG in this game.